The United Nations sanctions on Iran, which were previously lifted as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, are set to return after a failed bid to delay their reimposition. This development comes as a result of the United States’ withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and its subsequent efforts to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran through a controversial process at the UN Security Council.
Here’s a breakdown of the situation:
Background
- JCPOA: In 2015, Iran, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, China, and Russia reached the JCPOA, an agreement under which Iran would limit its nuclear activities in exchange for relief from economic sanctions.
- US Withdrawal: In 2018, the United States withdrew from the JCPOA, citing concerns that the deal did not adequately restrict Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile activities or its regional behavior. The U.S. then reimposed its own sanctions on Iran.
- UN Sanctions: The JCPOA included provisions that led to the lifting of UN sanctions on Iran. The agreement also included a mechanism (Snapback) by which any participant could invoke the return of UN sanctions if Iran was found to be in significant non-compliance with the deal.
Failed Bid to Delay
- US Initiative: The United States attempted to trigger the "snapback" mechanism in the JCPOA to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran, citing Iranian non-compliance. However, this move was met with resistance from other parties to the agreement, who argued that the U.S., having withdrawn from the deal, no longer had the standing to invoke its provisions.
- UN Security Council: The matter was taken to the UN Security Council, where the U.S. faced opposition, particularly from China and Russia, which vetoed a U.S.-sponsored resolution aiming to extend the arms embargo on Iran. Subsequently, the U.S. tried to pass a resolution to extends the arms embargo, which failed, and then attempted to invoke the snapback mechanism, which other council members refused to recognize as legitimate.
- European Position: The European parties to the JCPOA (the UK, France, and Germany) have been trying to preserve the deal, acknowledging Iran’s recent steps away from its commitments as concerns but arguing for a diplomatic approach to address these issues.
Implications
- Return of Sanctions: The failure of the delay bid means that UN sanctions on Iran could snap back into place, although the legal and practical implications of this step are complex and disputed. The snapback would include an arms embargo, restrictions on nuclear and ballistic missile activities, and other economic sanctions.
- Global Diplomatic Fallout: This situation could lead to increased tensions between the U.S. and its European allies, as well as with China and Russia, further dividing the international community on how to address Iran’s nuclear program and regional influence.
- Iran’s Response: Iran has threatened to take additional steps away from its JCPOA commitments if sanctions are reimposed, potentially escalating the situation and complicating diplomatic efforts to find a resolution.
The scenario is highly fluid, with the potential for significant geopolitical and economic repercussions. The key players, including the U.S., Iran, and other parties to the JCPOA, are engaged in a high-stakes game of diplomatic maneuvering, with the future of non-proliferation efforts and regional stability hanging in the balance.
