Top 10 Projected Upsets in the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament

The 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament is set to showcase thrilling matchups and potential upsets starting Saturday, March 18, 2025. This year’s tournament will take place across various locations, including Storrs, Connecticut, and Raleigh, North Carolina. Analysts, including ESPN’s Charlie Creme, have utilized both analytics and observational insights to forecast games where lower-seeded teams might dethrone higher-ranked opponents. Notably, the model defines an upset as a win by any team separated by three seed lines, indicating an exciting atmosphere filled with surprises.

Key Projected Upset Matches

Below are the top 10 games projected to end in upsets during the first four days of the tournament, along with their upset probabilities:

• South Dakota State vs. Oklahoma State

  First Round: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN2)

  Upset Chance: 32.6%
  The Jackrabbits are coming off a strong performance history and have a formidable player in Brooklyn Meyer, leading the charge against a vulnerable Oklahoma State team.

• Harvard vs. Michigan State

  First Round: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPNews)

  Upset Chance: 24.2%
  With Harmoni Turner’s impressive scoring ability and strong defensive stats, Harvard could pull off a memorable upset.

• Fairfield vs. Kansas State

  First Round: 2:30 p.m. ET Friday (ESPNews)

  Upset Chance: 6.5%
  Despite Kansas State’s strong BPI favor, Fairfield’s 3-point shooting prowess offers them a shot.

• Murray State vs. Iowa

  First Round: Noon ET Saturday (ESPN)

  Upset Chance: 14.7%
  The Racers lead the nation in scoring and could surprise with Katelyn Young’s performance.

• George Mason vs. Florida State

  First Round: 7:45 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN2)

  Upset Chance: 18%
  Riding a wave of momentum with four consecutive wins, George Mason could challenge a highly favored Florida State.

• Green Bay vs. Alabama

  First Round: 1:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN2)

  Upset Chance: 7.5%
  If Green Bay controls the tempo, they could frustrate Alabama’s offense.

• Washington vs. West Virginia

  First Round: 2 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPNews)

  Upset Chance: High risk due to West Virginia’s defensive strength.

• Matchups TBD

  Second Round: Expected TBD Sunday

  The highest-scoring teams with strong individual performances could lead to further surprises.

What Will Drive the Upsets?

Numerous factors could drive these potential upsets:

• Player Performance: Individual standout performances can change the tide of a game.
• Injury Status: The status of key players, like Kansas State’s Ayoka Lee, can heavily influence the match.
• Team Momentum: Teams on winning streaks often play with increased confidence, as seen with George Mason.

What Fans Should Know

As fans gear up for the exciting games ahead, keeping an eye on match statistics and player dynamics can enhance the viewing experience. The potential for upsets adds an extra layer of excitement, making every game a must-watch.

Conclusion

The 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament promises to be a stage for underdogs to shine, as analysts predict multiple potential upsets. With strong narratives and key players impacting outcomes, fans are encouraged to tune in and share in the excitement. Be prepared for a rollercoaster of emotions as teams vie for victory!

Keywords: Women’s NCAA Tournament, March Madness, projected upsets, South Dakota State, Harvard, upset predictions, basketball, women’s sports

Hashtags: #WomensNCAATournament #MarchMadness #Upsets #CollegeBasketball #WomensSports

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