Do You Know? ESPN’s Week 4 projections placed Georgia, Notre Dame, Miami, Indiana, Ohio State, Alabama, Texas, BYU and Florida among the projected top seeds or first-round participants in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff picture.
Week 4 brought major changes to ESPN’s projected postseason field, led by Iowa’s late victory over Michigan and conference wins by Florida and Mississippi State. ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach released projected playoff and bowl matchups on Sept. 28, while emphasizing that the matchups remain projections rather than confirmed selections.
Why this matters
The 2026 season features a 12-team CFP format in which Power 4 conference champions receive automatic bids, along with the highest-ranked Group of 6 team regardless of whether it wins its league. The remaining places go to the next seven highest-ranked teams.
The four highest-ranked teams receive first-round byes. The other eight teams are projected to play first-round games at the campus sites of seeds five through eight.
Iowa’s win changes the Big Ten outlook
Iowa delivered one of Week 4’s most notable results by defeating Michigan on a touchdown pass from quarterback Hank Brown as time expired. ESPN said the finish showed that the Big Ten title race was more open than expected.
In Bonagura’s projection, Iowa was seeded No. 7 and hosted No. 10 Utah in the first round. Schlabach projected Iowa at No. 7 Alabama instead.
Florida enters Week 5 unbeaten
Florida also moved into the postseason discussion after a conference victory. ESPN noted that the Gators entered Week 5 undefeated for the first time since 2019.
Bonagura projected No. 9 Florida at No. 8 BYU, while Schlabach projected No. 9 BYU at No. 8 Florida. Their differing brackets illustrate the uncertainty surrounding the postseason picture early in the season.
Projected first-round matchups
| Projection | Matchups |
|---|---|
| Kyle Bonagura | No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas; No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Ohio State; No. 10 Utah at No. 7 Alabama; No. 9 Florida at No. 8 BYU |
| Mark Schlabach | No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Indiana; No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Ohio State; No. 10 Iowa at No. 7 Alabama; No. 9 BYU at No. 8 Florida |
Projected quarterfinal paths
Bonagura’s quarterfinal projections included Texas against Miami, Ohio State against Indiana, Alabama against Notre Dame and BYU against Georgia.
Schlabach projected Indiana against Miami, Ohio State against Notre Dame, Alabama against Georgia and Florida against Texas.
Projected championship matchups
Bonagura projected Notre Dame against Georgia in the national championship game. Schlabach projected Miami against Georgia.
The championship game is scheduled for Jan. 25 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, according to the ESPN source. The projected postseason schedule begins with first-round games on Dec. 18 and 19, while the actual matchups are expected to be set on Selection Day, Dec. 6.
What happens next
Teams will continue to alter the projected bracket as the regular season develops. ESPN said Bonagura and Schlabach will update their bowl and playoff predictions weekly until the actual matchups are announced.
Bottom Line
Iowa’s last-second win over Michigan and key conference results made the Week 4 CFP picture less predictable. ESPN’s projections placed several national contenders in position for postseason berths, but the early-season bracket remains subject to change.
Source
This report is based on information published by ESPN.
