Why This Matters: Homes built in areas exposed to flooding may become harder or impossible to insure in the future, leaving residents and communities facing greater financial risk.
Amanda Blanc, chief executive of insurance company Aviva, has warned that current construction patterns could put more homes at risk of future insurance problems. Based on those patterns, she said 115,000 new homes could be built in flood zones over the next decade.
Blanc told the BBC that flood risk is “absolutely increasing” and said planners should think carefully about where new homes are built. She also argued that construction near flood zones may require a different approach to reduce properties’ vulnerability.
What the available figures show
The Environment Agency estimates that about 6.3 million homes and businesses in England are at risk of flooding. Separately, Aviva research found that one in nine homes built between 2022 and 2024 faced medium-to-high flood risk.
| Finding | Figure or timeframe |
|---|---|
| Homes and businesses at risk in England | About 6.3 million |
| Potential new homes in flood zones | 115,000 over the next decade |
| Homes built between 2022 and 2024 at medium-to-high risk | One in nine |
| New homes built in 2024 projected to face some flood risk | Nearly one-third by 2050 |
| 2024 homes projected to face medium-to-high risk | One in seven by 2050 |
Aviva’s projections indicate that nearly one-third of homes built in 2024 could face some level of flood risk by 2050. The company estimates that one in seven could face medium-to-high risk as extreme weather becomes more acute.
Why flood risk may affect insurance
Insurance availability depends on the level of risk associated with a property. Blanc said some homes being built today could become uninsurable in the future because of flooding. The source does not specify when particular properties might lose cover, nor does it say that every home in a flood-risk area will become uninsurable.
Blanc said measures can be taken to make properties more or less vulnerable to flooding, although the source does not provide a detailed list of those measures. She said construction close to flood zones also needed a different approach.
Climate context
The BBC report said the Met Office had estimated earlier in 2026 that, under current levels of global warming, record-breaking wet winters like the UK winter of 2023-24 had become more frequent. Such winters were estimated to have shifted from being once-in-80-year events to once-in-20-year events.
This estimate provides context for the insurance warning, but it does not predict the flood risk for any individual property.
Government response
A spokesperson for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said the government had invested in protecting nearly 900,000 properties from flooding and the billions of pounds in damage associated with it.
The department also said its planning proposals would prevent housebuilding from going ahead in areas at risk of flooding, while supporting the construction of 1.5 million homes without compromising safety. The report does not provide further details of those proposals or indicate when they will take effect.
What remains uncertain
- The figures cited are estimates and projections, not guarantees about individual homes.
- Aviva’s research findings are presented as company research; the source does not describe its methods in detail.
- The report does not state how many homes are currently uninsured because of flooding.
- It does not identify specific insurance products, premiums or eligibility rules.
- It does not explain which building measures would most effectively reduce flood vulnerability.
Bottom Line
Aviva’s warning highlights a growing planning and financial challenge: homes built in flood-prone areas may face greater exposure to damage and could become more difficult to insure as flood risk increases. Government planning decisions, flood protection and property design are likely to shape how serious that risk becomes, but the source does not establish the future insurance status of any specific home.
Source
This report is based on information published by BBC Science & Environment.
