Ethiopia’s renewed fighting matters because it is no longer confined to a political dispute in Tigray. Tigrayan forces have launched attacks into the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara, seized or contested transport links and joined a new alliance with armed groups from elsewhere in the country. The escalation is the most serious challenge yet to the 2022 agreement that ended Ethiopia’s civil war.
What has happened?
On Sunday, seven armed groups, including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), announced the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. The alliance says it aims to remove the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Addis Ababa.
On Wednesday, the TPLF said it had taken control of three airports from federal police. Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to the region, citing “the current situation”. Fighting was also reported in Afar and Amhara. A humanitarian source told Agence France-Presse that Tigrayan forces used heavy artillery while attempting to take Yallo, near the Tigray-Afar border.
A foreign security source told AFP that the TPLF had taken control of Abala, also on the border, and that fighting was occurring around Weldiya in Amhara. The Ethiopian army said it had stopped the attacks and that more than 500 enemy fighters had been killed, wounded or captured. That military claim was not independently verified in the source report.
Why is this a return to a wider conflict?
The fighting crosses the boundaries of Tigray, Afar and Amhara and involves more than one armed organisation. TPLF vice-president Amanuel Assefa said Tigrayan forces were fighting alongside local armed groups in Afar and Amhara. The new alliance also includes Fano, an insurgent group that previously fought alongside the Ethiopian government against the Tigrayans during the civil war.
This creates the possibility of several conflicts becoming connected: the TPLF’s confrontation with the federal government, regional disputes involving Amhara and Afar, and tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The source reports that analysts believe Eritrea supports the TPLF, while Ethiopia’s government has made similar accusations. Eritrea has repeatedly denied such claims, and Assefa said the TPLF had no information about Eritrea’s plans and was not yet requesting Eritrean intervention.
How does this relate to Ethiopia’s previous civil war?
The TPLF ruled Ethiopia from 1991 until 2018, when Abiy’s rise sidelined the party. Political tensions eventually developed into the 2020–22 war between the Ethiopian army and the TPLF’s political and paramilitary structures.
About 600,000 people died during that conflict, according to the source. Tigray was largely cut off from the outside world as communications were severed and access to food, cash and medicine was severely restricted. Hundreds of thousands of people were pushed into famine-like conditions.
The Pretoria agreement, signed in 2022, ended the war and produced an uneasy calm. Clashes resumed late last year, and the latest offensive now represents the agreement’s most serious challenge, according to the Guardian’s report.
What are the immediate consequences?
Residents in Tigray have begun stockpiling food and cash. A resident of Adigrat told Reuters that panic-buying had emptied shops, while food shortages and scarce, expensive medicines were worsening. The resident said people feared conditions similar to the siege during the previous war.
Flights to Lalibela were suspended because of nearby fighting, and Ethiopian Airlines halted flights to the region. Disrupted transport and communications could make it harder for civilians to obtain supplies or for humanitarian organisations to assess needs and deliver assistance.
Why could the conflict become regional?
Ethiopia is already surrounded by security pressures, including the war in neighbouring Sudan and tensions along the Red Sea. Eritrea is a historic adversary of Ethiopia and fought on the federal government’s side during the previous Tigray war. The Guardian report says Eritrea fears Ethiopia may seek to invade its territory to regain access to the Red Sea; Ethiopia’s government has not been reported as confirming that plan.
The involvement of armed groups from different Ethiopian regions, combined with allegations of foreign backing, increases the risks beyond the immediate battlefront. It does not establish that a broader regional war will occur, but it helps explain why the African Union and European Union have called for restraint, immediate de-escalation and a return to direct talks under the Pretoria agreement.
What remains uncertain?
- Control of territory: The TPLF and Ethiopian authorities have issued competing accounts of the fighting and territorial gains.
- Foreign involvement: Ethiopia’s government has accused Eritrea of financially backing alliance members, while Eritrea denies similar accusations. The TPLF says it has no information about Eritrea’s plans.
- The peace process: The parties have not publicly agreed on whether the renewed fighting can be contained through the existing 2022 framework.
Source
This explainer is based on information published by The Guardian.
